2003 Futura International User Group Meeting
SaabTech Järfalla Conference Centre, Sweden, 25-26 September 2003

Thursday 25 September 2003

Lorens Borg, practice leader for Futura’s work in Sweden, welcomed about 40 participants to the 2003 User Meeting. His advice to the conference was to discuss the challenging topics, not just the usual advantages of Futura method that most people are already familiar with.

One of the hosts, Carl Mellander, presented an introductory overview of Saab and SaabTech, a corporation with a 16 000 workforce which is responsible for well-known projects like the JAS Gripen fighter aircraft, the NH90 helicopter and Cetris.

Pekka Pere from Finland then gave a short welcome address on behalf of the Futura One mother company, Proha.

Peter Adlington, MD of Futura International, reviewed our 10 years. He began by describing the early years and illustrated how the Futura Group has grown since then. Today, the Futura software is used in many countries around the world, including Malaysia, Australia, the USA and India. He also announced the release of
the latest version the Futura Nova software (v2.0). New features include improvements to the schedule analysis program, storing the graph setup information, and the addition of a security key. As for the next 10 years, Futura will be active in adding new consultants and organisations to the Group, as well as establishing
representation in more countries. Customer-centred software development will continue. Peter ended his presentation by thanking everybody, especially the customers, for the first 10 years.

Keynote Address: ‘Does the CEO want to know the truth?’

The 2003 Keynote Address was given by Roger Sprimont, former Executive VP of Celsius. Roger has used the
Lichtenberg Method over many years and in many different situations. He underlined the fact that the Method engages all the analysis participants, and he noted how effective it was in promoting interaction and mutual understanding of the situation under discussion.

‘Does a CEO want to know the truth?’ The question is a very challenging one and has many sides to it. The answer is not simple – the question in fact consists of many aspects: what is the truth, who possesses the truth, can the truth be hidden, who wants to hide the truth, who wants to know the truth, who is responsible for the truth, when is the moment of truth?

One of the conclusions was that in the end the CEO definitely is responsible for the truth, but that not all CEO’s really want to know it. Roger claimed that Lichtenberg Method always reveals more truth since it provides
better understanding of the project and encourages people to speak out who would normally remain silent. However, it can sometimes be difficult to communicate the outcome of an analysis to people who have not participated the session. There is therefore a heavy responsibility on senior management who have participated in the analysis to see the action plans carried through.

According to Roger, the worst enemy of all is the problem of positive and negative prestige. It can often be best if the customer and the contractor work together in a joint analysis if both sides are prepared to do so. Roger ended his address with some comments about the actions plans that result from an analysis. He noted that ‘most companies have many more unsuccessful action plans that they have successful ones. In my opinion, the reason is that most action plans are either too ambitious or totally unrealistic’. This is because if you quantify resources, time and costs for each action in the plan, the sum of it all is very often an unpleasant surprise. Realism is essential.

Conference Dinner

The Conference Dinner took place at the famous Wallmans Salonger in downtown Stockholm, where we enjoyed good food, good company and four hours of excellent entertainment.

Friday 26 September 2003

The second conference day was a very interactive one, and it included two workshops for small groups with plenary feedback sessions.

The first workshop looked at different aspects of the Key Note address given by Roger Sprimont.

Carl-Johan Koivisto then gave a presentation about Saab’s Network Centric Warfare Program – the Need for risk reduction. He described the key requirements of modern crisis management: availability, scalability and usability. This evolution in needs requires inter-operability, new methodologies and a high usage of technology. The philosophy is based on a COTS approach where the best tools for each task are integrated into a common real-time information framework. Products found in the market are used, but they have also to be combined with legacy systems in a user-centric way.

Users have to understand the data they are being given and be able to use it. Simulation is therefore very important. Connections between different national systems have to be possible for international operations like NATO and the UN. Within such a very complex system, major risk areas include:

• Date security
• Complexity (nobody can understand the whole system)
• Validation and certification
• Integration
• Transmission

One of the main conclusions was that the network society is here, and network solutions will dominate future defence designs. Operational and technical integrations present major challenges.

Erling Hjallen from Futura then shared some ‘New Ideas about the Process for a Successive Analysis’. His talk was based on the outcome of the May 2003 meeting of Futura Consultants in Copenhagen. New ideas were presented on how to make better schedule analyses, how to make better triple estimates, how to use the Method to handle different types of uncertainty (e.g., ‘either-or’ situations), and how to develop better action plans. These ideas were then discussed in small group workshops after an excellent lunch in the SaabTech canteen.

The final presentation of the Conference was given by Johnny Tedenfors from Sagus AB and Mats Persson from Futura. Their presentation concerned the WILMA project, which is an information system for handling immigration cases in Sweden (Web-based Information System Linking Migration Authorities). WILMA is a joint project involving a number of users, each with differing needs, but all using a common information database (e.g., various embassies abroad, the Police, the Migration Board and the Aliens Appeals Board).

Many goals had been set: shorter processing time for applications, reduced costs, enhanced legal fairness, etc. PROPS and MiniRisk had been used for planning. A Futura analysis was carried out just before the first roll-out in order to secure delivery of WILMA within time and budget. The conclusion was that the available project duration of 28 weeks to get WILMA up and running at the first embassy site could only be achieved if certain recommended actions were immediately carried out.

These were implemented, and a successful result was achieved. WILMA has now been rolled out to more than 20 embassies and the project continues to expand.

Johnny and Mats highlighted one key success factor: that the project Steering Group should be trained in order to fully understand the results of the Futura analysis. This comment led to an impromptu discussion about the role of Steering Groups. Another discussion topic was how to handle the results of an Uncertainty Analysis in different organisational and national cultures.

In parallel to the main afternoon sessions, Thomas Lillskogen gave an introductory talk to a number delegates who wanted a more formal explanation of the approach and Method. It was nice welcome quite a few ‘newcomers’ to the Conference.

The Conference ended with a Final plenary session. Last, but not least, we especially want to thank Udo Siegert and SaabTech for inviting us to hold the User Meeting at the excellent conference facilities at Järfalla. It was a truly memorable occasion.

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